A first-principles analysis of Anthropic API costs across three growth scenarios, prepared for investor review. At any realistic membership tier, the AI cost per member per year stays below $1.25. This is a structural advantage, not a line-item risk.
Admin overhead runs at roughly $1.07/month regardless of member count. At small scale this is a larger share of the per-member number. As active membership grows, that fixed overhead amortizes across more members and the average per-member cost falls toward the Haiku floor.
| Stage | Monthly active members | AI cost / member / month | AI cost / member / year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early stage (today) | 10 | $0.21 | $2.52 |
| Low scenario (month 12) | 33 | $0.12 | $1.44 |
| Expected scenario (month 12) | 98 | $0.10 | $1.20 |
| High scenario (month 12) | 260 | $0.10 | $1.20 |
All three scenarios assume word-of-mouth growth only, no paid acquisition, and a 65% active member engagement rate. Admin AI overhead is fixed at roughly $1.07/month regardless of member count. The $250 recommendation covers the high-growth year with $75 to spare.
Growth assumes a high-touch wellbeing community built on word-of-mouth and Kristin's existing audience. No paid acquisition is included. The 65% active member ratio is conservative for a coaching-style community where members have made a deliberate financial commitment.
Every member-facing feature runs on Claude Haiku 4.5, the most capable model at the lowest cost tier. All high-volume paths use Haiku. Sonnet is reserved for marketplace listing copy, where output quality justifies the cost. No Opus is deployed in production. The cost structure reflects deliberate choices made at every build decision point.